Farmer’s Almanac Warning Illinois About a Very Stormy 4th of July

Even as a self-admitted weather nerd, I have a hard time accurately predicting the weather just a few days from now. Farmer's Almanac has no problem, though, issuing a warning about a very stormy time for Illinois for this upcoming 4th of July.

I have so many questions about what the Farmer's Almanac has just shared, but let's begin with exactly what they're saying. In their new outlook for summer, there's a specific group of days that they seemed to be concerned about for Illinois specifically. Overall, they say Illinois' summer will be "thunder-filled", but their 4th of July forecast is troubling if they're correct. They say that July 4 through July 7 in Illinois will be the following:

"Severe thunderstorms sweep in from the west, perhaps threatening the Fourth of July holiday"

It's obvious that thunderstorms in Illinois are not an uncommon thing. As a matter of fact, last 4th of July in 2024 had storms AND flooding in Illinois as an added bonus.

How does Farmer's Almanac know what weather in Illinois will be like 2 months from now?

Farmer's Almanac uses moon phases and also historical data and cycles to come up with their predictions. They've been around a long time and I respect their history, but I'll stick with what the meteorologists at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center are saying before I let the moon tell me that the 4th of July is gonna be a lightning show instead of fireworks.