USGS Simulates Major Quake in St. Louis—Damage Could Be Huge

If you live in or near Missouri, you likely have heard of just about every possible earthquake scenario involving the New Madrid Fault, but did you know that the USGS ran a specific simulation to see what would happen if major quake were to be centered in the St. Louis area? The estimates of damage are staggering.

I came across a list of simulations of earthquakes in the central and eastern United States that the USGS has done over the years. Most of these were created in 2011 and included the well-known 7.7 magnitude quake centered in the Missouri boot heel. I was not aware that they also simulated a magnitude 6 quake in the St. Louis region. Here's the shake map showing how far away a quake like this would be felt.

What kind of damage would a magnitude 6 quake do to St. Louis?

• Structural damage to poorly constructed buildings
• Damage to transportation routes and utility lines
• Unreinforced masonry buildings and older structures could topple
• Bridges would be impassable until surveys could be done

Estimates show that up to 89,000 buildings could be damaged with an estimated recovery cost of $69 billion dollars in St. Louis and up to $296 billion for the entire region, but that's not all. Long-term power outages and possibly even flooding could add to the challenge of recovering from a quake in a metro area like St. Louis. One other thing to consider is the difficulty first responders and relief efforts might have with potential disruption of road and bridge traffic.

With a majority of New Madrid Fault quakes centered in the Missouri boot heel, a major shake centered in or around St. Louis isn't one that comes to mind often, but it's a true nightmare scenario if it were to ever occur.