Can the New Madrid Fault Really Trigger a 9.0 Quake?

Anyone who has lived in Missouri for any length of time has likely heard of and feared a major New Madrid earthquake. There's a recent claim that says that fault is capable of a catastrophic magnitude 9 quake, but is that really possible? I made up my mind to find out once and for all just how big a potential southern Missouri quake could be.

Let's face it. Anyone and everyone can get on the internet and claim whatever they want even if there's no basis in truth. I tend to ignore the more outrageous sources, but I take notice when a YouTube channel like Bright Side Global makes claims like this since they have over tens of thousands of subscribers as of this writing. Their title of a recent video says "Megaquake Incoming? New Madrid Fault Could Unleash a 9.0!". You can watch their claims for yourself.

Is the New Madrid Fault really capable of a magnitude 9 earthquake?

I'll save you some time and give you the short answer right now. No, the New Madrid Seismic Zone is not believed to be capable of a magnitude 9 quake and I'll explain what I've learned. The Missouri State Emergency Management Agency says an 8.8 is likely the strongest quake possible in southern Missouri while the USGS officially says 7.6 is what they consider to be the maximum strength of a New Madrid quake. Forbes says that many experts suggest the historic 1811 and 1812 New Madrid quakes may have reached up to that 8.8 threshold based on the damage caused.

What is the most likely major earthquake event along the New Madrid that Missouri should actually plan for?

It's a well-documented fact that the USGS has run simulations of a 7.7 New Madrid quake so it's fair to consider that a worst-case scenario. The most likely major quake event would be in the 6.0 to 6.5 magnitude range. That would be strong enough to do big damage to areas near the epicenter, but not nearly the catastrophic 9 that is imagined above by Bright Side Global. I think going outside of known scientific analysis from experts at the USGS and emergency management agencies does not help the cause of public safety. Missouri really should be aware that a major quake event is possible, but there's no reason to infer it will be disaster movie level damage. A magnitude 9 earthquake is more likely to happen on the Syfy channel than it is in Missouri.