Explosive Storm Development in Missouri & Illinois to Return Soon

If it's April and you're in Missouri or Illinois, you can expect storms more often than not. There is a rather specific time period where you should be aware that storms are likely to return to our part of America and that's the last two weeks of the month according to computer models.

I came across this share on Facebook/Meta by Storm Chaser Stephen Jones. He shared a graphic from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center that looks at precipitation probabilities between April 20 and May 2, 2025.

Nick Bender from KMBC in Kansas City is seeing the same thing.

Here is the original map from NOAA. It's important to note that this is not a forecast, but the likelihood that areas in Missouri and Illinois will see rain compared to normal April chances.

The ridging he's talking about is the movement of the jet stream. When a ridge exists in the western US, that more or less blocks severe storm development. What we saw during the tornado outbreak of March 14, 2025 was a southerly to northeastern track of the jet stream which resulted in explosive storm development when the moisture moved northward from the Gulf and interacted with the cold front.

It would be wise to assume we'll see a return of stormy weather later in April for both Missouri and Illinois. It's the time of year when that is not an unusual thing to happen anyway.