Confidence High Missouri & Illinois in Path of Early April Storm

I can't remember a March quite like this one. Once again, forecasters at NOAA are issuing an extremely early warning about Missouri and Illinois both being in the path of a dangerous early April storm.

As of this writing, it's still March which is why I am amazed that the NOAA Storm Prediction Center has already posted an advisory about what Missouri and Illinois should watch out for the first week of April. This is what Wednesday, April 2, 2025 looks like.

There's a lot of meteorologist talk in the details of the discussion they included with this advisory, but here's a summary. They believe that moisture will head northward from the Gulf and interact with another system that will be moving through Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday, April 2.

It's key to see the exact words of what they added to the end of the advisory:

"Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though are really uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days."

Let's emphasize their mention of uncertainty. As of the date of this writing, we're still 6 days away from Wednesday, April 2. There are a lot of variables that could change between now and then. Timing and severity could change. 

I've mentioned this for the past few storms and I'll say it again. I watch what the Storm Prediction Center shares all the time and it is rare that I see them put out an advisory area this far ahead of time. That tells me there is real concern that we could have yet another severe thunderstorm event in Missouri and Illinois.