A little rain can be a good thing, but the type of rainfall that is possible in the tri-states this weekend may very well be record-setting based on the current forecast.

If you look at the forecast from the National Weather Service in St. Louis, it looks innocent enough. Rain starting tonight and continuing through Sunday.

NWS, St. Louis
NWS, St. Louis

If you dig deeper into the hazardous weather outlook from the NWS, you'll see more details about what that will likely involve:

There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of the area today and tonight. Some storms overnight may be capable of large hail over portions of northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois.

The previous record for rain in Quincy on October 24 was 1.09 inches which happened in 1975. Hannibal's record for October 24 goes all the way back to 1934 when 1.21 inches fell.

NWS, St. Louis
NWS, St. Louis

According to the NWS area forecast discussion shared Friday, it's possible we could see upwards of 3 inches in some parts of our area. Here's their exact wording:

Rainfall amounts up to 3", with locally higher amounts where
thunderstorms impact the same area repeatedly, can be expected.
While record-breaking rain (Quincy's record rainfall for Sunday is
1.09") seems likely at this point in that area, flash flood guidance
suggests that only those areas that receive higher amounts under
convective cells would be of concern for flooding. Smaller rivers
and tributaries may have trouble handling this rainfall, however,
which would lead to river flooding concerns in this area.

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Many forecasters on YouTube are looking at the models and agree that our area could be seeing 3 to 5 inches of rainfall.

Rain is expected to become heavier late Saturday night and continue through much of Sunday. Since this is weather we're talking about, there are no certainties, so be sure to follow the National Weather Service on Facebook for updates and more detailed information as this storm system passes through our area.

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