New Forecast Shows Missouri Could Be on a Winter Rollercoaster

If you live in Missouri and are trying to mentally prepare for the winter ahead, you might want to make sure you're buckled in tight because a new very detailed forecast shows Missouri could be about to take a ride on a winter rollercoaster of sorts.

Of all the preliminary forecasts for winter so far, the one just shared by One Nation Weather is among the most detailed and well-explained. He explains how the forecasted La Niña pattern could affect Missouri by showing how two very recent year La Niña patterns played out.

Let's start with the official NOAA seasonal outlook for December 2024 through February 2025 which shows the extreme eastern half of Missouri could be extra wet.

But when it gets interesting is when he shows how actual precipitation amounts played out during recent La Niña's. This was the actual observed moisture during the winter of 2017 and 2018.

Based on all the trends, he tosses out what he believes is the best representation of the current forecasts and trends. Look at Missouri's wet expectations.

The rollercoaster aspect of this is the divide in Missouri between extremely wet areas and the parts of the state that will be less so. The other wild card in all this is the temperature expectations. Past La Niña's have been warmer than normal, but not by much. His warning is that this unsettled pattern could lead to big snow events in Missouri if the jet stream and other winter factors play out like the models expect.

I appreciate that he ends with an emphasis that ALL the winter "forecasts" you're seeing right now as Fall has just begun are GUESSWORK. It's a best guess about how all of these factors will result in the winter weather we actually get.

He does a really good job of quickly explaining all of the trends and models and I recommend watching all of it. Very well done.