Is Super El Niño Bad News for Missouri & Illinois Snow Shovels?
My dad used to tell me that trying to predict the weather in Missouri is like trying to nail jelly to the wall. It's difficult. Keep that in mind as there's a new experimental forecast tool from the National Weather Service that predicts a Super El Niño is likely and that could be bad news for snow shovels in both Missouri and Illinois.
This prediction comes from NCAR/UCAR which says has what it calls "an experimental prediction system developed for research purposes by the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)". That system issued this prediction:
Current El Niño conditions are likely to develop into one of the strongest events on record
My wife the meteorologist told me about this and my immediate question was what does this mean for us non-technical people that don't understand the atmosphere, but just live within it. I was directed to this historical graphic by the National Weather Service. In short, a Super El Niño could (key word) mean that we're in for a slightly warmer and drier winter than normal. Translation? Your snow shovel could be kind of lonely this winter.
Here's the graphic showing historical snowfall amounts during Super El Niño.
The latest National Weather Service discussion says the likelihood for a Super El Niño are now at 71%. So you're saying there's a chance?
If you read the fine print, they go onto say that these types of conditions don't always translate into local impacts. That's weather expert talk for "we really don't know for sure".
I believe that looking at historical models is useful for us regular people to understand that it's POSSIBLE that the upcoming winter MIGHT not be as cold and snowy as originally thought. Excuse me while I flip a coin.
2023 – 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Weather Forecast
Gallery Credit: Mary K