Missouri Could Be Days Away from a Major Rain, Snow & Ice Event

I've been watching the computer models predicting incoming trouble for about a week now and have been waiting hoping that variables would change the outcome. We're now close enough that I feel like I need to sound the warning that Missouri could be days away from a major rain, snow and ice event.

I am not a meteorologist, so please don't base any major decisions on my outlook on weather. You should always consider the National Weather Service the final authority when it comes to weather warnings. But, my wife is a meteorologist and she's not the only one I've seen that believes Missouri could see a major winter event just days from now.

Let's get right to the point. The GFS computer model is generally the most reliable for looking at winter storms. Here's what it shows will begin impacting Missouri starting late Saturday night, January 5, 2025. Snow is predicted to be the initial precipitation type in the northern half of Missouri (the blue area) with freezing precipitation in the southwestern part of the state.

As the system makes its way across the state during the day on Sunday, the GFS shows a complicated mess of snow, ice and rain.

This wintry mix is expected to continue into Monday, January 7, 2025. Some parts of Missouri and Illinois could see thunderstorms if this system occurs as the GFS shows.

What does the National Weather Service say about this incoming winter system?

The National Weather Service in St. Louis included some interesting thoughts in their long-term discussion. Here are their exact words paraphrased a bit:

"The next clear chance for precipitation comes late next weekend, as guidance consensus shows a more potent shortwave moving through the region. Differences in amplitude and timing of this wave among deterministic solutions and ensemble clusters lead to uncertainty in precipitation and temperatures. If ridging can build into the region
ahead of the wave as some guidance suggests, temperatures will rise to some degree, supporting a greater chance for liquid precipitation especially if it occurs during the daylight hours. If temperatures are not able to warm enough and precipitation occurs mostly at night, then a greater chance of frozen precipitation can be
expected."

The Climate Prediction Center has already put most of Missouri in the slight risk for heavy snow next weekend.

I am not the only one that is seeing a winter storm potential for Missouri and the rest of the Midwest in the first week of January.

You'll hear the internet weather personalities and meteorologists saying what I'm about to say. This is just what the models are showing is possible and not a forecast (yet). Just know that in the next few days you would be wise to pay attention to the National Weather Service forecasts once they examine the models and decide what warnings or advisories are needed. I hate snow and winter in general and hope what I'm seeing is wrong, but I feel a responsibility to at least sound a warning to be aware of really nasty weather that could be just days away from Missouri.