Severe Storm Risk Returns to Missouri Midweek

As of right now, much of Missouri is under a threat of severe weather tonight. That is likely to be true in a few days again as computer models show the state is right in the middle of an expected outbreak.

It's unusual for the NOAA Storm Prediction Center to put an area under an advisory this many days away. By the time Wednesday arrives, here's the area with an elevated chance at seeing severe thunderstorm development. Notice that Missouri is right in the middle of it all.

Infographic, NOAA Storm Prediction Center

The forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center say they expect "strong to extreme instability" thanks to a low-level jet which potentially will mean "swaths of damaging winds". They also add that this could be a multi-day severe weather event impacting a wide area. This agrees with what machine learning models at Colorado State University say is expected. If anything, their model shows even more intense storms than the NOAA outlook.

Infographic, Colorado State University

It's important to note that timing is everything. The meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center warn that this advisory area could shift as they see updated weather models closer to the event. In the meantime, it would be a good idea to be mentally prepared to be weather-aware in the middle of this coming week. Make sure you have multiple ways to get weather warnings from the National Weather Service Wednesday when/if they are issued. It sure looks like Missouri will once again have a major thunderstorm event to deal with.