How Likely Is a Major New Madrid Quake? Experts Answer

It's sometimes difficult to separate fact from fiction when it comes to analyzing the real dangers (or not) of the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Let's avoid the sensationalistic doom and gloom channels on YouTube and see what the real experts say is the likelihood of a major New Madrid Fault earthquake.

If you are one of the many people who have been kind enough to follow me over the years, you deserve a medal. You also are likely aware that I follow activity along the New Madrid Fault closely. That's why I frequently share earthquakes and tremors that I find interesting. I share what I share to encourage emergency preparedness and awareness, but I get frustrated when I get lumped in with the internet sources that want  you to believe that a literal earth-shaking event in Missouri is imminent.

What is the real likelihood of a major New Madrid Fault earthquake?

I decided to query the USGS written estimates of how likely a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake would be originating from the New Madrid Fault. That's the size of tremor that would be strong enough to do at least some damage. I asked for percentage chances over 3 different time spans which should give you an idea of whether it's you, your children or your grandchildren that will likely have to deal with this potentially life-changing event. Here's what I learned:

• The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there is a 5-10% likelihood of a magnitude 6 or greater New Madrid Fault quake in the next 10 years
• The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there is a 10–18% likelihood of a magnitude 6 or greater New Madrid Fault quake in the next 20 years
• The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there is a 25–40% likelihood of a magnitude 6 or greater New Madrid Fault quake in the next 50 years

My question for the USGS databases came back with some additional things to consider. Over the next 50 years, there's a  7–10% for a repeat of the 1811–1812 New Madrid Fault earthquake sequence means about 1 chance in 14 to 1 chance in 10.

If you prefer to be an optimistic "glass half full" type of person, you'll enjoy these odds:

• There is a 60–75% chance that no magnitude 6 or larger earthquake will occur in the New Madrid Seismic Zone over the next 50 years.
• There is about a 90–93% chance that there will not be another 1811–1812-sized earthquake during that period.

What's the ultimate takeaway from these earthquake odds that you should apply to your life?

While it's true and likely that a major New Madrid Fault earthquake will happen in our lifetime, it could happen tomorrow - or today. Having an emergency plan with your friends and family can give you piece of mind knowing that you'd know what to do if the New Madrid Fault decides to change our lives someday. Whenever such an event happens, it would likely strike with absolutely no warning. That's why understanding the risks and preparations today can make your tomorrows more easy to deal with having piece of mind knowing you're ready.