What a Major Missouri Earthquake Would Cost Today

There has been a lot of speculation over the years about what kind of damage a major New Madrid Fault quake might do, but there have only been a few studies that have examined the financial impact. There are new numbers that show what a major shaking in southern Missouri might mean in dollars and it's now even more stratospheric thanks to inflation.

Let's start with stated facts from the Missouri Department of Natural Resources

Here are the exact words from what Missouri state authorities have said about a major seismic event along the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Keep in mind these are 2004 financial estimates:

'A 2004 HAZUS report prepared by FEMA, based on a 7.7 earthquake occurring in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, estimates earthquake damages to be $296 billion dollars across the region and nearly 730,000 people displaced from their homes. In Missouri, the report estimates a direct economic loss of $69 billion dollars and nearly 87,000 damaged buildings."

What would a major 7.7 magnitude quake cost Missouri if it happened today?

Adjusted for inflation, the $296 billion regional loss estimated in the 2004 FEMA scenario would be roughly $524 billion in 2026 dollars, while Missouri's $69 billion share would equal about $122 billion today.

Most of the exercises and studies that have been done about the consequences of a major New Madrid Fault quake focus on damage to buildings and loss of life and homes. Those are obviously the most important factors to consider, but what a major shaker might do to the state and nation's economy is also problematic. Depending on the exact magnitude and location of a big New Madrid Fault quake, recovery could take months if not years. Transportation across the Mississippi River and highways and roads especially in southern Missouri would be tricky. Even getting emergency supplies to residents in that region would be a huge challenge.

When you start considering the financial impact of such a catastrophic event, it reveals that emergency planning ahead of time could be crucial in saving lives and possibly preserving everyone's economy when a major New Madrid Fault quake happens. It's really just a question of when and not if.